After the change of government in Japan last weekend, climate change supporters are optimistic. They believe that the victorious Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which came to power by ending nearly 50 years of uninterrupted rule by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), will take a new look at the whole issue of global warming and the consequences.
Japanese environmentalists were alarmed when last June outgoing Prime Minister Taro Aso announced that the country would seek to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases by eight percent from 1990 levels by 2020. This goal was far lower than the European Union's target of 20 percent.
The Climate Change Project Leader at the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), world's largest environmental conservation organization, Masako Konishi condemned past policies of the Liberal Democrats:
“The new administration and their climate change strategy is much more ambitious than the old one. LDP has pledged 8% cut by 2020 compared to 1990 level."
The Prime Minister elect and leader of the Democratic Party Leader (DPJ), Yukio Hatoyama, has announced plans to cut back emissions by at least 25 percent by 2020. This is a remarkable turnaround in government policy. And it is in line with public sentiment.
A nationally representative survey of 976 Japanese of voting age found that more than six in ten Japanese favour a reduction target of 25% or more. 62 percent believe that the previous government did not do enough.
Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol is due to expire in 2012 and with the Japanese pushing the idea of further reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases, new issues are likely to be on the table at the Copenhagen climate talks in December, says Masako Konishi:
“When the Kyoto Protocol expires we expect a new framework will already be in place. There should not be an information gap between the Kyoto Protocol and the new framework. We expect a very ambitious reduction target from the developed countries including United States. As well as financial support from developed countries to developing countries and enable a mitigation process in the new framework to have a safe future for the next generation.”
Big developing countries are now joining the industrialized nations as the chief polluters. But they - like India and China - have consistently refused to make any compulsory pledge to cut emissions by 2020 or beyond, saying this could stifle their economic development and prevent them from overcoming poverty.
Policy shift in Japan
In Japan climate change strategy is now clearly becoming a more important issue as global warming accelerates, sea levels rise and weather patterns change. The new ruling party appears to be more in line with public opinion having announced new tighter greenhouse gas reduction targets. But Taka Hiraishi who is on the Board of Directors and a Senior Consultant at The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) warns that the new government will still have to face up to difficulties tough emission targets pose for the economy:
“The major victory of the DPJ two weeks ago was not influenced very much by the difference on political positions on climate change between the LDP and DPJ. When climate actions start hitting economy – if Japan seeks to go to minus 25 % from 1990, it would require more stringent and substantial controls. DPJ government will need to address this, and it will have economic implications. But there will continue to be larger issues in the near term - such as in 2010 Upper House election.”
Against this background the new government will face tough choices when its honeymoon period in office is over. Will the Japanese still accept tough ceilings on greenhouse gas emissions if this hurts the economic recovery and the creation of new jobs? It is impossible to answer this question at the present time, but the clock is ticking.
Author: Nikki Rattan
Editor: Grahame Lucas
Deutsche Welle
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